ACUS11 KWNS 262329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262328=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-270100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0866
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern New Mexico into West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 262328Z - 270100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for
sporadic damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail for the next
couple of hours. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms have developed along a
weak boundary late this afternoon in the vicinity of the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains in southeastern New Mexico/West Texas. This
boundary demarcates the western periphery of a corridor of enhanced
low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s F), which
is supporting weak buoyancy (generally 500-1000 J/kg across the
region. Modest effective shear upstream of a mid/upper trough axis
(20-25 kts per latest mesoanalysis) is sufficient to support some
organization of updrafts into multicells and perhaps marginal
supercell structures. Steep low- and mid-level lapse rates will
promote a threat for sporadic damaging wind gusts and isolated large
hail. A landspout also cannot be ruled out should a more robust,
low-level updraft interact with enhanced surface vertical vorticity
along this boundary. Thunderstorm activity should then gradually
wane after another 1-2 hours owing to low-level nocturnal cooling/stabilization. Given the limited magnitude and the expected
short-term nature of the severe threat, watch issuance is unlikely.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/26/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_4z3DiPptMd8b7cbre7f28cpbDPQhRAvCUhMYYQ7nl1r59EkPJS9oqe6N_v4RQVWO5aqi_l5E= KYe7RNAtwk_mVzn1vo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

LAT...LON 32140467 32350460 32620427 32760388 32730334 32600301
32110279 31110269 30410254 30110244 29590256 29170280
29070301 29230349 29710389 30460435 30970468 31540485
31850479 32140467=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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