ACUS11 KWNS 262014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262014=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-262215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0863
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Areas affected...portions of north-central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 262014Z - 262215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk for isolated hail
or damaging gusts. Storm organization will be limited and a WW is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 2010 UTC, regional visible and radar imagery
showed towering cumulus and initial thunderstorms deepening along a
frontal boundary across far eastern ND and north-central MN. Ample
heating is supporting weak destabilization along and south of the
frontal zone this afternoon. Deep-layer flow and effective shear are
quite weak suggesting little in the way of storm organization. The
multi cell storms amid relatively cool mid-level temperatures could
support occasional severe hail with the stronger updrafts. The
low-level air mass is also well-mixed with T/TD spread near 40
degrees F. The dry low-level may allow for stronger gusts with the
more robust downdrafts.

Current expectations are for storms to gradually intensify along the
front this afternoon. With little in the way of organization, the
severe threat is likely to be sporadic/limited, but focused where
any stronger storms can cluster and persist. Given the lack of
broader support, a WW is unlikely at this time.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 05/26/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Jy7m3d0a0qJEUoh20hk4-bGsUuScEobxug-w5WwHrF3Guav0vAU36yftUUE1sIABhWXdiYAN= Exwq7PiGGkqaBfhiCo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 47559687 47529609 46999427 46359276 45719280 45499311
45459381 45589438 46039534 46639641 46969688 47199697
47559687=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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